Baseball Research

Pitching Under Pressure: Do Pitchers Change their Strategy?

Do pitchers change their decisions when stakes are higher? This project sets out to answer this question by using pitch-by-pitch MLB data to see if pitchers follow trends when they are under pressure

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Key Takeaways:

  • High leverage pitches are rare, but decisive

    • Only 17.58% of pitches are thrown under pressure

  • Most pitchers stick to their game plan

    • Overall pitch distribution changes very little when pressure changes (top figure)

  • Outliers stand out

    • Notable significant positive effect: Luis Castillo (15.9% more likely to throw a fastball under pressure)

    • Notable significant negative effect: Felix Hernandez (9.89% less likely to throw a fastball under pressure)